MLB best prop bets: Which pitcher will lead MLB in wins?

To top it off, Burnes wasn't exactly coy about letting everyone know his arbitration case with the Brewers didn't sit too well with him, and that might factor into his performance. Now could mean the opposite happens and Burnes uses that as motivation and has career year? Absolutely. But still, that doesn't guarantee him wins. 

So, we're going to stay clear of the three favorites — Cole, Burnes and Rodon — and focus on three other guys. And best of all, the line is much better on these three in comparison to the three favorites.

Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500)

Julio Urias led the majors with 20 wins two years ago and won 17 games last season, so excluding him from the list would just be asinine. And with an odds line of 25/1 ... that just makes it all that much more appealing to bet on. Urias might not have elite stuff, but he sure is consistent and is on a great team, which makes him a guy you must consider before choosing someone else.

Urias has made 30+ starts in back-to-back seasons and even led the National League in ERA+ last year. We're well aware he might not be the best pitcher on his team, heck, he might not even be second or third best behind Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and Walker Buehler, but neglecting Urias is a major mistake. 

Urias could have won more games last year if the Dodgers didn't run away with the NL West and decide to rest their starters late in the season to get ready for the postseason, but without Trea Turner and Justin Turner, the Dodgers might not even win the NL West. The Dodgers won an MLB-best 111 games and were 54-22 against the NL West last season, and we don't see that happening again this year. To be honest, we're not even sure they win 100 games, which is going to make it that much harder for Urias to lead the league in wins. However, the southpaw is still a name you must consider, and is definitely worth putting a little bit of money on.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels (+2200)

Ohtani ran away with AL MVP two years ago, and he probably should have won it again last year. But that's a conversation for a different day. It's obvious Ohtani is the most electrifying player in the game, and even though he's also a full-time position player, he's a guy you must strongly consider to lead the majors in wins. 

If Ohtani strictly focused on pitching, he'd probably be the best pitcher in baseball. Heck, you can easily make the argument he's the best pitcher in baseball, and that's not even his primary position. Scary, we know.

Ohtani's stuff is as good as it gets, and despite struggling to stay on the mound early on in his MLB career, Ohtani has clearly shown us how good a pitcher he is over the last two seasons. Ohtani had a career year as a pitcher last year (15-9, 2.33 ERA in 25 starts), and that was on a team that struggled to score runs and won just 73 games.

The Angels should be much better offensively this season, and if they are, they should be much closer to .500. So, if Ohtani pitches as well as he did last year, he's more than capable of winning 20 games and leading MLB in wins. But, before you decide to go all in Ohtani, be aware of a couple of things.

One, the Angels haven't finished above .500 in the seven straight seasons, making it that much more unlikely Ohtani leads the league in wins. Two, the Angels scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball. Three, the Angels bullpen has been below average the last couple of seasons, so unless Ohtani pitches all nine innings, it makes it that much more unlikely he records the win in each start he departs with the Hals leading. And lastly, since Ohtani is a two-way player, he's not going to make as many starts as most starters.

Still though, putting some money on Ohtani is worth it, especially with the line at 22/1. He's the best player in the game and entering a contract year, meaning a historic season could put him in line for a historic payday this offseason. 

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (+1600)

Justin Verlander is gone, and Framber Valdez is now the ace for arguably the best team in baseball. Excluding the 2020 shortened season, the reigning World Series champs have won 95+ games five years in a row, and we don't see that changing this season. The rest of AL West might be better, but so are the Astros, especially after Jeremy Pena's monster postseason and offseason signings of Michael Brantley and Jose Abreu. 

The Astros are the team to beat in baseball. Plain and simple. And no starter was more consistent than Valdez last year. Valdez led baseball with 29 quality starts and even set an MLB record with 25 consecutive quality starts. So, what's not to like about the most consistent pitcher on one of the best teams in baseball, if not the best team, to lead the Majors in wins? Nothing, right?  

We agree. So put your money on Valdez right now. Valdez was second behind AL Cy Young Award winner Verlander in wins among AL pitchers last year, and with Verlander gone, this could be the year Valdez gets to the top. Valdez is coming off a career year and we only see him getting better. The Astros' offense is elite, so it's not like a lack of run support is going to be an issue for Valdez, and the bullpen was lights out in the postseason, making it all that more likely multiple Astros starters win 20+ games in 2023. 

However, Valdez is the best of the staff. Valdez won 17 games last season, and 20+ wins is more than realistic this season. The only thing that could get in Valdez's way is an injury, but considering he's made 20+ starts in each of the last two seasons, his durability isn't a major concern for us. 

Others to consider:

Justin Verlander, New York Mets (+1600)
Jacob deGrom (+1600)
Zack Wheeler (+2500)
Spencer Strider (+4000)

Our Pick: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros (+1600)
Bet $100 to win $1,600

All odds via Caesars Sportsbook