MLB Best Bets: Now that bags are bigger, who will lead MLB in stolen bases?

You’ve heard it all winter, stolen bases are going to go up big time this year. Why? Because the bases are bigger, resulting in an overall shorter distance from base to base. The size of first base, second base and third base used to be 15 inches square but now they're 18 inches square. The change creates a 4 1/2-inch reduction in the distance between first base and second base and second base and third base.

MLB hopes the increase bases will first and foremost result in less injuries on the bases and encourage teams to attempt more stolen bases. MLB first experimented with the bigger bases in the minor leagues and the overall stolen base success rate did increase by 11%. Does that mean the same will happen in the majors? We’re not convinced it’s a definitive yes.

That being said, don’t expect some longshot with a line of 100/1 to lead the league in stolen bases just because the bases are slightly bigger this year. Now that doesn’t mean there isn’t value on betting on someone with a line less than 10/1, but what we are saying is expect someone who’s usually atop the stolen base leaderboard to lead MLB in stolen bases again in 2023.

The Favorites:
Ronald Acuna Jr, Atlanta Braves (+400)
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles (+500)
Adalberto Mondesi, Boston Red Sox (+600)

Ronald Acuna Jr. is the favorite to lead MLB in stolen bases with a line of 4/1 and we’re surprised. Acuna stole an impressive 29 bases in just 119 games last year but he’s had a real tough time staying healthy the last couple of years. Acuna Jr. hasn’t played a full season since 2019, so don’t expect the Braves to let Acuna Jr. run loose on the bases. Atlanta knows they need Acuna Jr. for the long haul if they’re going to win another World Series, and constantly having him trying to steal second when the guys that hit behind him are more than capable of bringing him around to score with an extra-base hit. If the line was closer to 10/1 or even 8/1 we’d say ok, bet on Acuna Jr., but at 4/1, no way. It’s not worth it.

Cedric Mullins has the next best odds at 5/1 and we though he’d be the betting favorite. Although Mullins has never led the majors in stolen bases, he has swiped 30 or more bases in back-to-back seasons. We’ll talk more about him later, but there’s value in betting some money on Mullins, even with a not-so-great line of 5/1.

Adalberto Mondesi is likely going to be utilized as Boston’s utility guy this year, so betting on someone who isn’t going to be an everyday player is just a bad idea. When Mondesi is healthy, playing every day and hitting, he’s arguably the biggest base-stealing threat in the game, but we’re not confident he’ll stay healthy, play every day or turn it around at the plate. Mondesi led the league in stolen bases during the 2020 pandemic season but he has managed to play in just 50 games since. Even if the line on Mondesi was closer to 15/1, we still wouldn’t bet on him to lead the league in stolen bases this year.

Jazz Chisholm Jr, Miami Marlins (+2500)

We know of the Madden Curse but what about the MLB The Show curse? You know why you’re not sure if it’s a thing or not? Because it’s not. Chisholm Jr. is on the cover of MLB The Show this year and right away people are already counting on Chisholm Jr. to have a down year. MLB The Show has been around since 1997 and only three players — Yasiel Puig, 2015; Josh Donaldson, 2016; Javier Baez, 2020 — have stunk up the joint the same year they were on the cover.

That’s way better compared to Madden or any other league cover, so you can trash that theory. Chisholm Jr. only played in 60 games last year, but he still stole 12 bases and made the All-Star team. Imagine if he played a full season? He probably would have stolen a minimum of 40 bases.

Chisholm Jr. is moving from the infield to the outfield, so if you’re reluctant to bet on him to do anything this year because of the position change, we somewhat understand. But moving from the infield to the outfield is way easier than moving from the outfield to the infield, so we’re not all that worried.

And best of all, the Marlins love to run (second in MLB in stolen bases, 1^st in NL in stolen bases). Jon Berti — Chisholm Jr.’s replacement after he got hurt — led MLB in stolen bases last year, and that very well could have been Chisholm if he never got hurt. Chisholm Jr. is still raw, but he has all the tools to be an All-Star, and more importantly, lead MLB in stolen bases.

Let’s face it, the Marlins are in a rebuild and they need to see if Chisholm Jr. is someone they can build around or if they should just trade him away in a year or two for some more prospects. So, unless Chisholm Jr. really struggles at the plate, he’s pretty much a guarantee to play every day. And with an amazing line of 25/1 we still can’t stop licking our lips and are committed to putting money on Chisholm Jr. to lead MLB in stolen bases.

Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (+2000)

Did you know Trea Turner is the fastest player in baseball. That’s right. Turner covers the most feet per second at 30.7. That goes unnoticed because of how well he hits and plays the shortstop position but the dude has some serious wheels. And that alone is why you should bet at least a little bit on Turner to lead MLB in stolen bases.

If there’s one guy who’s going to benefit from the bigger bases, it’s Turner. Some people get nervous betting on someone who switched teams to lead the league in any category but don’t be. Turner is now part of a stacked Phillies lineup, which means he should get the same amount of pitches to hit as he has in the past.

Turner has never led the majors in stolen bases but he has led his respective league — 2018 and 2021 — twice. And even though he’ll be 30 in June, he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down. Turner stole 27 bases last year and was only caught three times.

If Turner leads the league in hitting like he did in 2021, there’s a chance Turner attempts 50, heck maybe even 60 stolen bases this year. And considering how successful he has been, he may very well swipe a minimum of 45 bases.

And with a line of 20/1, only a fool would say no. We know St. Patrick’s Day is right around the corner, so let us leave you on this note — taking Turner to lead MLB in stolen bases could result in you getting the largest pot of gold you’ve ever seen in your life. Get this bet ASAP though because we don’t see the line getting any better once the season starts.

Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles (+500)

Cedric Mullins has quietly been the best player on the Orioles for quite some time, but since Baltimore was worse than hot garbage from 2017-2021, he’s flown under the radar. But make no mistake about it, Mullins is one of the best overall outfielders in baseball. Maybe not the best or elite, but he’s very, very good.

He hits, hits for power, plays a solid center field and can run. And he’s only 28, so it’s not like his best years are behind him. Mullins was third in the league in stolen bases last year and has finished in the top five in each of the last two seasons.

And with Baltimore slowly but surely bringing up all their top prospects to the Big Leagues, Mullins should get some better pitches to hit. Why does that matter you ask? Because it likely means his batting average, on-base percentage, and most importantly, stolen base attempts will go up. More stolen base attempts should mean more successful stolen bases for Mullins too.

Don’t go crazy here with Mullins but putting some money on him to lead MLB in stolen bases is worth it. However, you might want to wait till April because we see the line on him going up to about 8/1 once we’re in May.

Others to consider:
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+1200)
Jorge Mateo, Baltimore Orioles (+3000)
Whit Merrifield, Toronto Blue Jays (odds currently unavailable)

Our Pick: Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (+2000)

Bet $100 to win $2,000
All odds via Caesars Sportsbook