National analyst makes strong statement about Billy Napier's ability to keep his job at Florida beyond the 2024 season

Florida Gators head coach Billy Napier is squarely on the hot seat entering the 2024 season. 

Napier is 11-14 through his first two seasons at Florida. And in 2024, Napier and the Gators will face a daunting schedule that includes matchups against Miami, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Florida State. 

Matchups against Kentucky, Texas A&M, UCF, and Mississippi State aren't exactly automatic wins, either. 

Just going 6-6 or 7-5 would be a decent showing for the Gators. But that probably won't be enough for Napier to keep his job beyond the 2024 season. 

(Each of Napier's predecessors, Dan Mullen and Jim McElwain, were fired just a year after winning the SEC East.)

Mike Farrell of MikeFarrellSports.com (previously of Rivals.com) agrees that Napier likely won't be the head coach at Florida in 2025. 

"I have many theories on how Napier can survive," wrote Farrell this week. "Shock the world and just go 7-5 with that nasty schedule. Play all young dudes and show the promise of tomorrow during a rough season. But no matter how I spin it, he can’t survive. This team won’t win 7 and even if he ran with DJ Lagway and the younger players, patience won’t be there."

Florida isn't known for showing patience with head coaches. The expectation in Gainesville is to compete for a spot in the College Football Playoff on an annual basis. And right now, the Gators are nowhere close to being in that conversation. 

Napier isn't a bad coach -- he went 40-12 as the head coach at Louisiana, which is no small feat -- but he's taking too long to get things going at Florida. Maybe if the Gators are patient, Napier will be one of those coaches who finds his footing (and finds what works in the SEC) after a couple of subpar years. But unfortunately for the former Furman quarterback, it feels very unlikely that Florida will take the patient approach.

Unless Napier can shock some folks and win 9 or 10 games in 2024, it seems all but certain that Florida will be looking for a new head coach this winter.